Exclusive Almost 40% of GPs see themselves leaving UK general practice in the next five years, a Pulse survey has found.
The results of a survey of 747 GPs found that 29% see themselves retiring in the next five years, while 7% think they will be still working outside general practice, and 3% working as a GP but in a different country.
It also found that only 30% of GPs still see themselves in a partnership role in their current practice in the next five years.
GPs told Pulse that they ‘worry about burnout’ and whether they would be able to handle the workload in a partnership or salaried position going forward.
They also said that a lack of locum work and salaried positions available as well as underfunding have contributed to considering moving away from general practice.
A Surrey GP planning to move abroad, who wished to remain anonymous, told Pulse: ‘I had hoped against hope that the incoming Labour government might tackle the primary care crisis as their predecessors under Blair did, with a huge improvement in the working lives and incomes of GPs.
‘Instead they’ve settled on a further real terms pay cut for GP partners through the national insurance changes.’
A locum GP working in the north of England, who also wished to remain anonymous, told Pulse that the lack of locum positions means that she may need to work outside the NHS to supplement her income.
She said: ‘As it happens by working as flexibly as I can I am just about managing with locum work, but this is only possible due to the fact that my husband is in full time work. Other locum GP colleagues have had to take up work in the private sector.
‘There is a lack of salaried posts available, and the posts available often involve unsafe workloads and the need to supervise and take responsibility for non-doctors, which I am unwilling to do.
‘I did enquire about a salaried post available last year locally and I was informed that a typical day would involve 34 patient consultations (mixture of telephone and f2f appointments) plus 2 home visits. I felt this was an unsafe workload.’
The Doctors’ Association UK GP spokesperson Dr Steve Taylor warned that the ‘tipping point’ has been reached and without reassurances and funding there ‘may not be many NHS GPs left’.
He told Pulse: ‘It’s sadly not surprising that 40% of GPs see themselves leaving general practice but perhaps more importantly only a third see themselves still in partnership roles.
‘With the undermining of GPs from the media, MPs and some members of the public, the continued failure of support from NHS England in terms of funding, the future of partnership model called in doubt by Wes Streeting – all this has resulted in future uncertainty.
‘Increased costs with no increase in funding, resulting in real terms cuts in income of 20% on average, have left partners demoralised, overworked and undervalued.
‘This is despite being the most productive area of the NHS doing 20% more work. The tipping point has been reached and without reassurances and funding there may not be many NHS GPs left.’
In response to these figures, an NHS England spokesperson said: ‘GP teams are the bedrock of the NHS, and we know they are delivering a record number of appointments which is why we are determined to give them further support and encourage them to stay in the profession including through our retention scheme which has already retained 2,000 staff across the health sector including primary care.
‘The NHS and Government’s proposed offer to GPs this year includes the largest boost to GP funding in years and reducing outdated targets to free up time.
‘While the NHS has committed to further growing the GP workforce including creating capacity for an additional 1,000 GP posts this year, and the number of GP training places will increase by half to 6,000 by 2031/32.’
Pulse has contacted the Department of Health and Social Care for comment.
The survey has also informed Pulse publisher Cogora’s Workforce White Paper and our major new series on the recruitment and unemployment crisis.
The survey results
|
Where do you think you will be in five years’ time in terms of your career? |
||
|
In a salaried role, in my current practice |
94 |
13% |
|
In a partnership role, in my current practice |
224 |
30% |
|
In a salaried role, in a different/new practice |
33 |
4% |
|
In a partnership role, in a different/new practice |
14 |
2% |
|
In a locum role |
55 |
7% |
|
Working as a GP in a different country |
26 |
3% |
|
Still working, but not as a GP |
51 |
7% |
|
In a primary care leadership role at the ICB |
4 |
1% |
|
Predominantly in a PCN leadership role |
5 |
1% |
|
Retired |
215 |
29% |
|
Other |
26 |
3% |
|
747 |
||
This survey was open between 19 September and 18 October 2024, collating responses using the SurveyMonkey tool. A total of 747 GPs from across the UK responded to these questions. The survey was advertised to our readers via our website and email newsletter, with a prize draw for a £200 John Lewis voucher as an incentive to complete the survey. The survey was unweighted, and we do not claim this to be scientific – only a snapshot of the GP population.
Well with the choice of Retire, locum or emigrating I have now Retired. I have done my time with 29 years as a full time GP (25 yrs partner, 4 yrs salaried). Seen lots of promises over the years about more GPs and better funding. But empty words used by politicians to get votes. Uncertain times for NHS general practice without massive funding support. GP Survival may depend on having a mix of insurance based care and basic tax funded care (as seen in most other countries). The current “all you can eat buffet “ that is the NHS is non-sustainable. Farewell, good luck and thanks for all the fish!
Those are interesting figures, but require some interpretation, which reveals further interesting trands.
It is interesting that 29% expect to have retired, and perhaps reflects the age-range of current established GPs, allowing for reduced survey completion by those less established in a settled location; and allowing for those reading pulse, rather than WhatsApp groups and vlogs and other new-fanged things these youngsters do these days.
The other interesting stats are those for non-GP jobs and the number planning to go overseas later in their career (ie after GP training has been finished and working as an established GP) Quite a few of us went overseas for seplls earlier in our careers, and I wonder how many are coming back each year nowadays?? And, is it about to increase?
Further analysis and matching with official stats on where graduates now are, and where incomers are coming from, would be interesting.
Well life in Canada is superb. To the extent that I’m doing pro-bono recruitment for Nova Scotia next month in London.
It’s very different: what they say they will do and what they actually do.
Dear Locum,
Bit chilly, isn’t it?
34 patient contacts per day that’s a mix of face to face and telephone with 2 home visits is too much for the current generation. “ Unsafe workload” As captured by the article above. It would be interesting to see what happens to that viewpoint between the sexes and across age ranges.
As someone who did 126 hour weeks as a hospital trainee in my early days before the European working time directive I’m surprised how far things have moved to the left. I’m still surprised how easily the younger GPs get stressed and everything is just too much for them. But I burnt out years ago. I’m fine now. Non combustible now. 😂 best thing to ever happen to me. 38 patient contacts a day is a quiet day for some but unsafe for others. We are a diverse bunch. We need to work within our safe limits.
If 36 patient contacts per day is too much and we say 32 is a safer number.
If we have 6000 new GPs per year. Let’s assume that none of them decide to go part time or ever get sick or quit the public health sector in the UK. They work 4.5 days per week with a session of something else- education.
That’s 144 contacts per week. 6336 contacts per year. Assuming they lose a couple of weeks with public holidays and 6 weeks leave. That’s an impressive 38 million patient contacts per year.
Now let’s assume that 2/3 are female. They have 1.49 children and take off a year per child and then go part time after the first child is born. Then they have to take time off when they’re sick and when their 1.49 children are sick, when their elderly parents are sick for whom they’re the main carers.
6000 training places per year isn’t cutting it. Who does the modelling for this? There is a model for the training places needed ? Better than my poor attempt. Surely?