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Expert analysis: How many new GPs have really been hired under ARRS?

Expert analysis: How many new GPs have really been hired under ARRS?

The Health Foundation policy fellow Jake Beech analyses official figures and asks how many ‘new’ GPs have been hired via ARRS

In early April, the Department for Health and Social Care announced that over ‘1,500 extra GPs’ had been recruited since last October ‘thanks to Government action’.

As a headline, this sounds impressive. Successive governments have tried and failed to meaningfully increase the number of GPs. The news might seem like a flying start for Labour on their pledges to ‘train thousands more GPs’, ‘bring back the family doctor’ and ‘fix the front door to the NHS’. However, there’s more here than at first glance.

Last August, Wes Streeting announced he was adding newly-qualified GPs to the Additional Roles Reimbursement Scheme (ARRS) backed by an extra £82m as an ‘emergency measure’. This was in response to concerns that newly-qualified GPs would be graduating into unemployment at the same time as there is a GP shortage. The move has now been extended by at least another year.

The paradox comes from misaligned policy. Practices have been facing a difficult choice: plug staffing gaps with extra GPs paid for from squeezed core practice funds; or draw on staff in other roles (e.g. clinical pharmacist or paramedics) via the Primary Care Network (PCN) ARRS scheme, who come without a direct financial cost. Adding newly-qualified GPs to the ARRS – the first time any GPs have been included in the scheme – helps level the playing field.

This is what the Government is celebrating. The ‘extra 1,500 GPs’ is the number of GPs being claimed under ARRS (as of March 2025). But it’s important to unpack this.

1,500 is a headcount figure, not a ‘full-time equivalent’ (FTE). FTE is the better measure of actual GP capacity. The data is also counting the total number of unique GPs for whom at least one ARRS claim has been made between October and March. This is not necessarily the same as the number of GPs in post at the end of March – the figure counts any GP who has been on the scheme, even if they have left.

For February, we do have an FTE figure for ARRS GPs in post – 851. Using the February data, we can compare with other data to see how many of these 851 FTE GPs are actually ‘extra GPs’. Do they add to the current workforce or are they just replacing GPs who leave?

Combining the wider PCN and core general practice workforce data suggests that between 30 September 2024 and 28 February 2025 (the latest available figures) the overall number of fully-qualified FTE GPs grew by 540. Unlike the ARRS figures, this accounts for GPs leaving the workforce (as well as any non-ARRS GPs who joined).

It’s also helpful to compare the growth with the same period last year. Between 30 September 2023 and 28 February 2024, the number of fully-qualified FTE GPs grew by 207.

Taken together, it’s clear that while the Government’s policy may be helping increase GP numbers, it isn’t transformative on its own.

So, what’s really going on with GP numbers?

All of this needs to be put in the context of wider GP workforce trends.

The number of fully-qualified FTE GPs saw a persistent decline from 2016 until around the middle of 2023. This was despite a rising population and increasing morbidity. Recognition of growing GP shortages was one of the main drivers behind the introduction of ARRS and recruitment of new roles in 2019.

Since mid-2023, the number of FTE fully qualified GPs has started to climb. It is now roughly back to where it was in 2018 – although the patient population has continued to rise since then.

The renewed growth in GP numbers seems to be driven in large part by the increase in GP training. In September 2019, there were 6,547 FTE ‘GPs in training grades’ (which covers GP registrars and foundation doctors working in general practice). By September 2024 there were 10,455 – a 60% increase.

While this is good news, converting trainees into FTE GPs in permanent roles within general practice is a challenge. Many young GPs are less interested in partnership than previous generations and are opting more for salaried roles. Salaried GPs are less likely to be full-time and tend to work fewer hours on average than partners – a key appeal of many salaried roles is a better work-life balance. As of last September, the number of GP partners by headcount was lower than the number of salaried GPs for the first time.

It isn’t just a generational issue – GPs across the workforce are reported to be working fewer hours. These changing working patterns have had a big impact. The headcount number of fully-qualified GPs remained broadly stable – or even increased – when FTE numbers fell. More GPs were working but overall GP capacity declined.

The quality of working life for GPs is a crucial factor. Issues like the admin burden, poor work-life balance, and lack of time spent with patients help drive GPs to cut their hours or quit entirely. UK GPs are now among the most stressed and least satisfied of their peers in other high-income countries. 

The Government aims to provide more continuity of care by ‘bringing back the family doctor’, improving general practice access, and shifting more care into the community. Delivering this means growing the GP workforce significantly. This needs a focus on training, recruitment and retention. Better working conditions and offering the types of roles that make GPs want to work more – not less – in general practice will be vital. While recent progress to increase the number of GPs offers promise, the Government will need to go much further to close the gap.  

Jake Beech is policy fellow at The Health Foundation


          

READERS' COMMENTS [1]

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Nick Mann 25 April, 2025 6:26 pm

Thanks for the helpful insight.